Storm Center

VERMILION COUNTY HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK

(Click Picture)

Click For Vermilion County Hazardous Weather Outlook

Central Illinois Storm Reports

(Click Picture)

--National Storm Reports--

STORM REPORTS
Issued by the Storm Prediction Center

Select date for other reports

December 07, 2023

No reports listed

Daily reports from the Storm Prediction Center starts at noon UTC and ends at one minute before noon UTC the next day. This time period is between 6am CST and one minute before 6am CST the next day.
All reports are considered preliminary and should be treated as such.

SPC Convective Outlooks

Move cursor over product parameter name to display the graphic below.

Select Day -->

Fri, Dec 08

Sat, Dec 09

Sun, Dec 10

Mon, Dec 11 to
Fri, Dec 15

Storm Risk Categories

000 ACUS01 KWNS 080554 SWODY1 SPC AC 080552 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated large hail will be possible from late afternoon into tonight across parts of the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks... A mid-level jet and an associated upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the central Rockies today. The trough will move into the central Plains and southern Rockies tonight. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will advect northward today across east Texas and the Ark-La-Tex. In response to lift associated with a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet, elevated thunderstorms may initiate and develop as the upper-level trough approaches. The corridor with the greatest potential for convective development should be from east Texas northward across Arkansas and into Missouri. Along the southern part of this corridor, RAP forecast soundings this evening generally increase MUCAPE into the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, mainly in northeast Texas and parts of Arkansas. This, combined with 40 knot of effective shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km, may support an isolated large-hail threat. Any severe threat could be sustained during the overnight period as large-scale ascent moves into the region ahead of the approaching trough. However, most CAM solutions have trouble initiating storms suggesting convective coverage will be very isolated, making any potential for hail conditional. ..Broyles.. 12/08/2023 $$

000 ACUS02 KWNS 071722 SWODY2 SPC AC 071710 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1110 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TX TO AR AND SOUTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail will be possible late night Friday from northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma through central Arkansas and southwest Missouri. ...Synopsis... Guidance has clearly trended over the past 36 hours to multiple distinct shortwave impulses ejecting within the broad upper trough over the western and central states. The lead impulse in the Four Corners area at 12Z Friday will amplify across the central Great Plains towards the Mid-MS Valley. Meanwhile, a secondary impulse and attendant speed max will hold back within the basal portion of the broad trough over the Four Corners. The net result will be more prominent surface cyclogenesis occurring ahead of the lead wave, mainly on Friday night across the Lower MO Valley towards southern Lake MI. A surface cold front will sweep more rapidly east in vicinity of the cyclone track, and slow its southeast push across the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex area late in the period. ...Northeast TX to AR/Southern MO... The aforementioned synoptic trends suggest that forcing for ascent appears to be limited across the modifying warm sector from east TX towards the Ozarks on Friday night. Timing of the wave ejections indicate near-neutral mid-level height change is anticipated overnight in this region. With substantial modification necessary of the continental polar air mass that is across the northwest Gulf coast, more than meager surface-based instability will likely struggle to advect north to/beyond the Ozarks. Within a southwesterly low to mid-level flow regime, moderate MLCIN and low RH above the capping inversion suggest that warm-sector thunderstorm initiation ahead of the cold front is unlikely through 12Z Saturday. Low-level warm theta-e advection could still be adequate for isolated slightly elevated thunderstorms centered on the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex region deeper into AR overnight, with a primary threat of localized severe hail. ..15_ows.. 12/07/2023 $$

000 ACUS03 KWNS 070757 SWODY3 SPC AC 070756 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from east Texas across the Lower Mississippi Valley, mainly on Saturday afternoon into the early evening. ...Synopsis... The broader synoptic trends noted in D2 persist into D3 with a leading shortwave impulse and attendant cyclogenetic surface low rapidly progressing across the central Great Lakes towards James Bay. The trailing cold front from the Midwest to east TX will continue to push southeast, aided by a seasonably tight surface pressure gradient between it and a stout anticyclone over the northern Great Basin. Much weaker secondary cyclogenesis is generally progged from the Ark-La-Tex on Saturday morning to at least the TN Valley by Saturday night, as an upstream basal shortwave impulse shifts from the Four Corners across the southern Great Plains. Model spread in placement of the surface cyclone/front increases late in the period. ...East TX to the Mid/Deep South... Slower timing of appreciable mid-level height falls over the warm sector on Saturday suggests that more than isolated thunderstorm development should hold off until midday through the afternoon. This would likely allow for a plume of moderate buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg to become established from the Upper TX Gulf Coast towards the Ark-La-Tex amid surface dew points into the mid to upper 60s. Deep-layer southwesterly shear vectors should be nearly parallel to the orientation of the cold front, supporting a predominant clustered to linear convective mode. As such, convection will likely become widespread by late afternoon into the evening with favorable effective bulk shear for organized updrafts. Low-level shear will be modest with southwest extent where the larger buoyancy is expected, suggesting a predominant severe wind/hail threat. Enlarged low-level hodographs should generally be confined from the Ark-La-Miss to the northeast and east, where surface-based instability should be diminishing with spatial extent. Given the overall model trends for only weak secondary cyclogenesis through 12Z Sunday, the eastern extent of the 15 percent probability area has been held as-is. Confidence is low in just how far east the extent of low-probability wind/tornado threats exist overnight. ..Grams.. 12/07/2023 $$