Days 4 to 8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Sat, Jul 12, 2025 - Sun, Jul 13, 2025 D7Tue, Jul 15, 2025 - Wed, Jul 16, 2025
D5Sun, Jul 13, 2025 - Mon, Jul 14, 2025 D8Wed, Jul 16, 2025 - Thu, Jul 17, 2025
D6Mon, Jul 14, 2025 - Tue, Jul 15, 2025 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
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