Days 4 to 8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Wed, Dec 31, 2025 - Thu, Jan 01, 2026 D7Sat, Jan 03, 2026 - Sun, Jan 04, 2026
D5Thu, Jan 01, 2026 - Fri, Jan 02, 2026 D8Sun, Jan 04, 2026 - Mon, Jan 05, 2026
D6Fri, Jan 02, 2026 - Sat, Jan 03, 2026 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
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