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VERMILION COUNTY HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK |
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--National Storm Reports--
  SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri May 24 09:06:02 UTC 2013 24 May 2013 at 4:05am No watches are valid as of Fri May 24 09:06:02 UTC 2013. SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri May 24 09:06:02 UTC 2013 24 May 2013 at 4:05am No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri May 24 09:06:02 UTC 2013. SPC May 24, 2013 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook 24 May 2013 at 2:32am SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF NERN WY / WRN SD / WRN NEB... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE DAY 3 PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY A WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NW...A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL U.S...AND A SLOW-TO-DEPART CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. MODELS HINT AT A LEAD DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS A WEAK CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED WITH AN ATTENDANT LEE SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE. ...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS... EARLY DAY STORMS --PERHAPS ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD-- MAY OCCUR INVOF A RESIDUAL NW-SE ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE MID MO VALLEY REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP FLOW AND WOULD SUGGEST THESE STORMS MAY BE SUB-SEVERE. ATTENTION FOCUSES WWD OVER THE NRN-CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATER IN THE DAY AS STRONG HEATING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON THE WRN EDGE OF MOISTURE LOCATED OVER THE CNTRL-NRN HIGH PLAINS. A STOUT EML FEATURING 12-14 DEG C H7 TEMPS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NWD THROUGH WRN KS WILL LIKELY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE FROM WRN KS SWD INTO WRN TX ON THE DRYLINE. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS BY EVENING OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EJECTING IMPULSE AND GENERALLY LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A NRN GREAT BASIN SPEED MAXIMA...WOULD IN TURN BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM PARTS OF WRN KS TOWARDS THE BLACK HILLS SHOW A VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH SBCAPE RANGING FROM 1500-2500 J/KG EXPECTED NEAR AND E OF THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN MODEST /25-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR/ OVER THE REGION. STRONG HEATING WILL ACT IN CONCERT TO WEAKEN AND LOCALLY ERODE THE CAP WITH ISOLD STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED. THE LLJ IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING SOME OF THE EVENING STORMS TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ...WRN KS SWD INTO WRN TX... A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORMS MAY FORM BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITHIN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IN THE FORM OF MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ISOLD DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..SMITH.. 05/24/2013 Read more SPC May 24, 2013 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook 24 May 2013 at 1:01am SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN CO INTO WRN NEB AND NWRN KS... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY OMEGA BLOCKING REGIME WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. FLANKED BY UPPER LOWS OVER THE ERN AND WRN STATES. GRADUAL DEAMPLIFICATION OF THIS REGIME WILL OCCUR AS SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN WRN U.S. UPPER LOW LIFTS NWD INTO SASKATCHEWAN...AND AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE OH VALLEY EXITS THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND WWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY...BUT WILL DEVELOP NWD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS ALONG A 50 KT SLY LLJ. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHERE THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVERLAP THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST AXIS WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE LIKELY FROM NERN CO INTO NWRN KS AND WRN NEB. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS REGION WILL RESIDE JUST SE OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN U.S. UPPER LOW WITH GENERALLY 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...THROUGH A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LINES/CLUSTERS BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE EVENING. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELLS...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...SRN THROUGH SERN TX... SWD PROPAGATING MCS MAY STILL BE ONGOING 12Z FRIDAY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A MODEST RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SOME INTENSIFICATION MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED...BUT RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MLCAPE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG MAY SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WING GUSTS AND HAIL. ..DIAL.. 05/24/2013 Read more SPC May 24, 2013 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook 24 May 2013 at 1:02am SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR A PORTION OF ERN MT / FAR NERN WY / WRN DAKOTAS... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE A WRN U.S. TROUGH/CNTRL U.S. RIDGE/ERN U.S. TROUGH. DOWNSTREAM OF THE WRN STATES TROUGH...A BROAD BELT OF MODERATE SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT. FARTHER E...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL EXTEND FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS TO THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE WEST OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY... NWD MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE CNTRL-NRN PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MIDWEST SURFACE HIGH WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE LEE TROUGH LOCATED OVER CNTRL MT WILL ACT TO DRAW 50S DEWPOINTS WESTWARD INTO ERN MT AND UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS INVOF THE BLACK HILLS...CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL-MODERATE INSTABILITY. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL SEEMINGLY LEAD TO ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD STORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON-MID EVENING. DEEPLY VEERING WIND PROFILES /40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR/ WOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLD LARGE HAIL/WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. FARTHER SE OVER THE MID MO VALLEY...THE TERMINUS OF A CNTRL PLAINS 30 KT LLJ WILL FOCUS OVER THE MID MO VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THIS REGION IS BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...AT LEAST A LOW RISK FOR STORMS IS SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY DEPICTED BY MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...A CONDITIONAL SEVERE AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED THIS FORECAST UPDATE. ...PORTION OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... A SELY LOW LEVEL FETCH OF MOISTURE LOCATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN CONCERT WITH THE LEE TROUGH...ABUTTING NEXT TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN W TX AND THE ERN PLAINS OF NM. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EMANATING FROM THE W AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL ACT TO FAVOR ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON...INITIALLY FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN. DESPITE ONLY 20 KT WLY H5 FLOW...STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION FEATURING MAINLY HIGHER-BASED MULTICELLULAR STORMS CAPABLE OF PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS COINCIDENT WITH A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.. ..SMITH.. 05/24/2013 Read more SPC May 24, 2013 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook 24 May 2013 at 3:45am Day 4-8 Outlook DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0344 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013 VALID 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING WRN U.S. TROUGHING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY /DAY 6/ BUT DIFFER QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. EPISODIC STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY EJECTING SMALLER-SCALE SPEED MAXIMA AHEAD OF THE LARGER-SCALE WRN U.S. TROUGH ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY /DAY 4-5/. ISOLD SEVERE STORMS APPEAR MOST PROBABLE TO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS STATES ON MONDAY /DAY 4/ AND THEN PERHAPS OVER A MORE EXPANSIVE AREA ON TUESDAY /DAY 5/...ADDITIONALLY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE MAGNITUDE/COVERAGE OF SEVERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT A 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY AREA. BY WEDNESDAY /DAY 6/...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE QUALITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS NWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEYS DESPITE MODEL VARIABILITY. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE EVOLUTION OF AN E PACIFIC JET MOVING INTO THE WRN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VARIABILITY RANGING FROM AN OPEN TROUGH TO A SLOWER CLOSED LOW SOLUTION OVER THE SWRN U.S. AS A RESULT...SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY FOR SEVERE EXISTS BY WEDNESDAY /DAY 6/ OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS GIVEN MODEL PREDICTABILITY CONCERNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH EVENTUALLY INFLUENCING CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CNTRL U.S. Read more Thank you for visiting Vermilionweather.com! |
SPC Convective Outlooks
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