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NWS Central Illinois
The Graphical Nowcast is an experimental product and might not be issued on a regular basis.
VERMILION COUNTY HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK |
Central Illinois Storm Reports |
--National Storm Reports-- |
--Current Severe Weather Watches-- |
--Tomorrow's Outlook-- |
--Day 3 Convective Outlook-- |
--4-8 Day Convective Outlook-- |
 SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 4 13:37:01 UTC 2012 4 Feb 2012 at 7:36am No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 4 13:37:01 UTC 2012. SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sat Feb 4 13:37:01 UTC 2012 4 Feb 2012 at 7:36am No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 4 13:37:01 UTC 2012. SPC Feb 4, 2012 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook 4 Feb 2012 at 6:52am SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2012 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AN ATYPICAL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD AS CNTRL RCKYS/GRT PLNS UPR LOW SHEARS ESE ON SE FLANK OF SRN AB/SK BLOCKING HIGH. A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ENE WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDING FROM NRN MEXICO TO THE S ATLANTIC CST. AT LWR LVLS...SRN MO SFC LOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ESE TO THE KY/TN BORDER BY THIS EVE. THE LOW MAY...HOWEVER...SUBSEQUENTLY STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT AS IT REFORMS OVER CNTRL/ERN NC ON SUN. COLD FRONT TRAILING SW FROM THE LOW WILL ADVANCE STEADILY SE ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY/CNTRL GULF CST REGION TODAY/TNGT...AND SWD THROUGH DEEP S TX LATER TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TSTMS THIS PERIOD...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. ...DEEP S TX THIS AFTN... SFC HEATING SHOULD SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN CINH TO SUPPORT SCTD TSTMS ALONG AND POSSIBLY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CROSSING REGION THIS AFTN. DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ASSISTED BY IMPULSES IN SUBTROPICAL JET...NONE OF WHICH APPEAR NOTABLE ATTM. WINDS WILL BE COMPARATIVELY WEAK. BUT THEY WILL EXHIBIT AMPLE VEERING FOR ROTATING STORMS...WITH 30+ KT WSWLY 500 MB FLOW OVERLYING 15 KT SLY NEAR-SFC WINDS. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...RICH MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.50 INCHES/...AND FRONTAL/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY UPLIFT...SETUP MAY YIELD A COUPLE SUSTAINED STORMS OR WEAKLY ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTN. SCTD ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY SUN NEAR BROWNSVILLE. ...LWR MS VLY/CNTRL GULF CST TODAY... NARROWING AXIS OF SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE STREAMING NEWD AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS OVER MS/AL/LA AND THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. MODEST DEEP SW TO WSWLY FLOW MAY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTERMITTENT SMALL BOWS THAT...COUPLED WITH PW OF 1.0-1.50 INCHES...SUPPORT A LOW CONDITIONAL RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND...ESPECIALLY FROM S CNTRL LA TO CNTRL MS. A CORRIDOR OF SLIGHTLY BACKED LOW LVL WINDS WILL EXIST ALONG ERN BORDER OF PURER MARITIME AIR...I.E. OVER SE LA AND SRN MS. BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO POSE AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR TORNADOES. THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. ..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 02/04/2012 Read more Thank you for visiting Vermilionweather.com! |
