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VERMILION COUNTY HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK |
Central Illinois Storm Reports |
--National Storm Reports-- |
--Current Severe Weather Watches-- |
--Tomorrow's Outlook-- |
--Day 3 Convective Outlook-- |
--4-8 Day Convective Outlook-- |
 SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 3 07:32:01 UTC 2010 3 Sep 2010 at 1:31am No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 3 07:32:01 UTC 2010. SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Sep 3 07:32:01 UTC 2010 3 Sep 2010 at 1:31am No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Sep 3 07:32:01 UTC 2010. SPC Sep 3, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook 2 Sep 2010 at 11:13pm SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 AM CDT FRI SEP 03 2010 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE NRN-STREAM PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE ALOFT THROUGH PERIOD...LED BY STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ANALYZED SWD FROM LOW OVER NRN MN. ASSOCIATED MID-UPPER CYCLONE IS FCST TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT...ENLARGE...AND MOVE EWD TO ENEWD ACROSS NRN ONT THROUGH PERIOD. MEANWHILE TRAILING TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EWD TO POSITION OVER LH...CENTRAL OH...AND EXTREME WRN NC BY 4/12Z. AS THIS OCCURS...RELATED STG COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED ATTM FROM WRN LOWER MI ACROSS SRN IL...NRN AR...SERN OK...W-CENTRAL TX -- WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH OH VALLEY...AND SEWD OVER CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...LOWER MS VALLEY AND S TX. ...NRN APPALACHIANS TO S TX... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS AND SMALL BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INVOF FRONTAL ZONE...PRIMARILY DURING AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING PERIOD OF STRONGEST HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT FROM UPPER OH VALLEY REGION SWWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMITING BOTH DEPTH AND MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY. THEREFORE...DURATION OF THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF IN THAT CORRIDOR. FARTHER SW ACROSS W GULF COASTAL PLAIN TO RIO GRANDE VALLEY...SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER SFC HEATING AND SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S F WILL BOOST MLCAPE TO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE IN PREFRONTAL AIR MASS. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EITHER IN FRONTAL ZONE OR ALONG PREFRONTAL SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LIGHT...ENELY-NELY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH WILL ACT TO LIMIT BOTH CONVERGENCE AND VERTICAL SHEAR. WHILE A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STG GUSTS OR SUB-SVR HAIL...SVR POTENTIAL ATTM APPEARS TOO WEAK AND CONDITIONAL TO DRAW AREA OF AOA 5% UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES. ..EDWARDS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/03/2010 Read more Thank you for visiting Vermilionweather.com! |
