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NWS Central Illinois
The Graphical Nowcast is an experimental product and might not be issued on a regular basis.
VERMILION COUNTY HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK |
Central Illinois Storm Reports |
--National Storm Reports-- |
--Current Severe Weather Watches-- |
--Tomorrow's Outlook-- |
--Day 3 Convective Outlook-- |
--4-8 Day Convective Outlook-- |
 SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu May 17 23:14:01 UTC 2012 17 May 2012 at 6:13pm No watches are valid as of Thu May 17 23:14:01 UTC 2012. SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu May 17 23:14:01 UTC 2012 17 May 2012 at 6:13pm No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu May 17 23:14:01 UTC 2012. SPC May 17, 2012 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook 17 May 2012 at 2:38pm SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2012 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN CO AND PORTIONS OF ADJACENT WRN KS/THE OK PANHANDLE... CORRECTED TEXT ...SERN CO/WRN KS/OK PANHANDLE VICINITY... FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...WITH MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AREAS IN BOTH THE SERN U.S. AND THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/NRN HIGH PLAINS EVOLVING AS EXPECTED. HAVE OPTED HOWEVER TO UPGRADE A SMALL PORTION OF THE THREAT AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO SLIGHT RISK...WHERE A VERY DRY/DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER TOPPED BY MARGINAL CAPE IS EVIDENT. WHILE THIS ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ACROSS A LARGER AREA OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...FAIRLY STRONG CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ALOFT -- EVIDENT IN SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS -- MAY YIELD A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF STORMS ACROSS SERN CO/SWRN KS AND VICINITY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. WITH A COUPLE OF FAIRLY ROBUST STORMS ALREADY IN PROGRESS ACROSS SERN CO...SUPPORTING THIS POTENTIAL...WILL ADD 15% WIND CONTOUR. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM FORECAST INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO RECENTLY ISSUED SPC SWOMCD #0828. ..GOSS.. 05/17/2012 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT THU MAY 17 2012/ ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. ONE SUCH TROUGH IS NOW OVER CENTRAL CO AND WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN THIS REGION...BUT STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THOSE STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE VERY HIGH-BASED...BUT MAY BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM WESTERN KS/EASTERN CO INTO THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. ...NORTHERN ROCKIES... ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE ORE/NORTHERN CA COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADING PARTS OF ID/MT/WY. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ID/WESTERN WY AND SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO MT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... A WEAK UPPER LOW IS PRESENT TODAY OVER SC/GA. MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXTEND FROM PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN GA/SC WHERE SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. WEAK FLOW WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THE STRONGER CELLS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. Read more Thank you for visiting Vermilionweather.com! |
